Chinese leader Xi Jinping will visit Russia next Monday (March 20). In addition to strengthening relations with Russia, mediating peace between Russia and Ukraine is expected to be an important purpose of his trip. Analysts pointed out that Xi Jinping wants to use this to reshape the world order, making it more conducive to the rule of dictators, and "fighting against the United States." However, the International Criminal Court's arrest warrant for Putin on the eve of Xi's trip will make Xi's attempt to mediate more difficult.

Reshape the world order through "mediation"

China and Russia announced the news of Xi Jinping's visit to Russia on Friday (March 17). Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Wang Wenbin emphasized at a regular press conference that Xi Jinping's visit to Russia will be a journey of friendship, cooperation, and peace and that China hopes to "play a constructive role in promoting peace talks." In addition, there are reports that Xi Jinping will hold a video call with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky after his meeting with Putin. Beijing has yet to confirm. If successful, it would be Xi's first conversation with Zelensky since Russia started the war.

Xi's trip to Russia comes after China brokered the restoration of diplomatic ties between Saudi Arabia and Iran, the Middle Eastern foes. After hosting four days of secret talks in Beijing to restore diplomatic relations between the two countries, China attributed the success of the talks to Xi Jinping's leadership, which it said showed the "responsibility of a major country". Analysts believe that China's role in the Saudi-Iraq reconciliation has given Xi Jinping more confidence in mediating between Russia and Ukraine.

Moritz Rudolf, a researcher at the Yale Law School Cai Yuanpei China Center who specializes in the study of the impact of China's rise on international order and international law, told Voice of America that China hopes to mediate the Russia-Ukraine war just as it normalized Saudi-Iraq relations. Reshape the world order.

"I think that's definitely an integral part of it. The Chinese leadership under Xi Jinping has always said it wants to play a more constructive role, especially in the area of ​​peaceful resolution of conflicts. That's their mantra for past conflicts. But The difference now is that we are seeing concrete actions by China to try to become a political mediator. Recently, we have seen this in East Africa and the Middle East. Also, we have seen them issue a statement about the International Institute of Mediation, an organization that can be classified as (China wants) to be seen as part of the goal of being a responsible great power. So that's part of the narrative that China wants to push forward," Rudolph said.

On February 16, China issued a statement from the International Mediation Institute (preparatory office). Currently, nine countries have participated, including Indonesia, Pakistan, Laos, Cambodia, Serbia, Belarus, Sudan, Algeria, and Djibouti. Rudolph believes that China’s doing this is to be seen as a “responsible” major country, and on the other hand, it also hopes to find a path different from that of the International Court of Justice through “peaceful negotiations and peaceful resolution of conflicts.”

It is worth mentioning that on March 17, the International Criminal Court issued an arrest warrant to Putin, demanding that he be held accountable for the war crimes he committed in Ukraine. Observers believe that this will make it more difficult for Russia and Ukraine to reach a peace agreement.

Julian Ku, a law professor at Hofstra University, tweeted, "No doubt Putin got what he deserved, but the arrest warrant will immediately lead to a peaceful and just debate, How do you reach a peace deal with someone who is wanted for war crimes? Will the arrest warrant prevent Putin from reaching a peace deal if he thinks he will end up like Milosevic?"

Rivalry with the United States

On March 15, Xi Jinping put forward the "Global Civilization Initiative". On February 21, before the one-year anniversary of the Russo-Ukrainian War, the Chinese Foreign Ministry also issued the Global Security Initiative. In September 2022, China put forward the "Global Development Initiative". Analysts believe that these are China's attempts to create a liberal international order different from that led by the United States.

Charles Kupchan, former senior director of European affairs at the US National Security Council and a professor of international relations at Georgetown University, told VOA: "I do think we are seeing a change in China. The order it doesn't want, which is an order dominated by the United States and its allies, is based on liberal norms, practices, and institutions, and now China is articulating what it wants, articulating its vision for the order it wants to replace. "

Take the "Global Security Initiative" as an example. The initiative lists 20 key cooperation directions. Although it emphasizes the role of the United Nations, the cooperation platforms and mechanisms it relies on are all exclusive of the United States, led by China, or have close ties with China. of.

Edward Luce, the American news editor and columnist of the Financial Times, wrote in an e-newsletter on March 17 that although China may not be as threatening to the survival of the United States as some hawks in the United States believe Or America’s most fundamental freedoms, but China’s approach has undermined America’s ability to function effectively globally.

“What is certain is that China wants to create a safe world for dictators, primarily China. It is engaged in an extremely serious great power competition with the United States. The United States needs to deal with it with the highest level of strategic thinking. … ...maybe life would be easier if our worldview was reversed to China's. But it would damage America's ability to function effectively globally."

Deng Yuwen, a Chinese political observer, believes that China's diplomacy during Xi Jinping's third term has undergone a significant change—" that is, from a passive response and counterattack to the containment and containment of the United States in the past, to an active struggle against the United States." He wrote in a guest commentary to Deutsche Welle on March 15: China will "take a more active stance and use China's strength and methods to actively construct a global order to compete with the United States."

Will China be a fair mediator?

However, mediating the Russo-Ukrainian war will not be easy. Unlike Saudi Arabia and Iran, which already have a strong will to improve relations, Russian President Vladimir Putin has so far not only shown no willingness to cease fire but has shown signs of escalating the war. Putin sent more troops to Ukraine, and stepped up the offensive against Ukraine, including the use of hypersonic missiles, and Ukraine did not give up resistance. There are even signs that both sides want to take advantage of the current warmer weather to further their respective actions.

What's more, analysts question whether Xi Jinping will use Russia's dependence on China to put pressure on Putin.

Kupkan, a professor of international relations at Georgetown University in the United States, said: "I don't see any signs that Xi Jinping is ready to put pressure on Putin to ease the situation. This is where China can play a key role. If Xi Jinping is going to be a constructive player, you have to put pressure on Moscow to de-escalate the situation. I don't think Beijing can act as a diplomatic mediator or mediator. In the end, if you want to play a diplomatic game, you need to have the United States, NATO allies, Ukraine and Moscow at the negotiating table in the end. I think Xi Jinping can help arrange such negotiations. He can put pressure on Putin to bring him to the negotiating table. But Xi will not be the key figure in successfully taking this war from the battlefield to the negotiating table."

Kupkan said that from China's standpoint and Russia's actions, Xi Jinping's visit this time is more to strengthen relations with Russia and show support for Russia.

China has not condemned Putin since Russia invaded Ukraine. In addition to buying Russian oil and natural gas at low prices to provide Russia with a lifeline, China has repeatedly abstained or voted against UN resolutions condemning Russia.

On February 24, on the first anniversary of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, China put forward “China’s Position on a Political Solution to the Ukrainian Crisis,” but since the peace plan neither mentions Russia’s troop withdrawal nor holds Russia accountable, many Western countries and observers believe that The peace plan is one-sidedly biased towards Russia, and even seeks a way out for Russia, which is in deep trouble. Some analysts even believe that this is not so much a peace plan formulated by China for the Russo-Ukrainian War as it is a condition set up by China to win the Taiwan War in the future.

Since Xi came to power in 2013, he and Putin have met 40 times. In 2018, Xi also called Putin "my best friend." Zhang Hanhui, Chinese ambassador to Russia, said in a joint interview with Xinhua News Agency and other Chinese media recently, “President Xi Jinping once again chose Russia as the first stop of his overseas visit after being re-elected as president, which fully reflects the deep personal friendship between President Xi Jinping and President Putin and his commitment to New Zealand. He also said: "No matter how the international situation changes, under the strategic guidance of the two heads of state, the China-Russia comprehensive strategic partnership of coordination in the new era will continue to move forward at a higher level."

Craig Singleton, a researcher at the Foundation for the Defense of Democracy, believes that Xi Jinping may value his personal relationship with Putin more than contributing to global peace.

"I think Xi Jinping will prioritize his personal relationship with Putin. The substance of that relationship will outweigh some of the symbolic gains that China can get from being able to contribute to the global order in a positive way. I think that from Xi Jinping's perspective, the priority is to ensure that Russia remains the strategic ballast against the U.S., and he is very focused on making sure Putin has the means necessary to sustain the war on Ukraine."

Whether such necessary means include China supplying Russia with lethal weapons is what the United States and the West are concerned about. On February 18, U.S. Secretary of State Anthony Blinken (Antony Blinken) pointed out that according to the information it has, China is considering providing lethal support to Russia. On March 15, CNN reported that a modified and weaponized Chinese-made drone was recently shot down in eastern Ukraine.

Singleton said he did not believe China would actually broker peace because the war in Ukraine distracted the United States and Europe from fully dealing with China in the Indo-Pacific region. However, some people believe that although the war has contained part of the power of the United States, the war in Ukraine has promoted the relationship between traditional allies such as Japan, Australia and the Philippines, and the United States, making China face a more difficult geopolitical environment in the Asia-Pacific region. Not bad for China.

In any case, Singleton believes that Xi Jinping's visit should be a good opportunity to test whether China can really fulfill its promise to become a responsible big country.

Rudolph of the Yale Law School said that it is almost impossible for China to mediate peace between Russia and Ukraine on its own. However, it would be positive if China could use its economic relationship with Russia to facilitate a multi-party peace process. Now at least it shows that China hopes to intervene in the future peace process between Russia and Ukraine, and has political ambitions to occupy a seat at the negotiating table.

Reactions to Chinese mediation

The United States remains vigilant against China's "persuading peace talks". John Kirby, the White House National Security Council's strategic communications coordinator, said in an exclusive interview with VOA on Friday that "a ceasefire sounds good, but it actually recognizes the land that Russia has captured on the battlefield." Already occupied about 17% of Ukraine's territory during the war.

Kirby said China's peace plan is one-sided and reflects only Russia's point of view. "A real end to the war must be done in a just way, with respect for Ukraine's rights and full respect for Ukraine's sovereignty. Talking about a ceasefire now sounds good, but we don't have the conditions."

However, he encouraged Xi to engage in dialogue with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky. "We still believe that it is very important that he also listens from the Ukrainian side. Not only (to listen to) Mr. Putin, and not only from the Russian point of view."

Respect for Ukraine's sovereignty and territorial integrity is also Ukraine's point of view. Ukrainian Foreign Minister Kuleba tweeted after a phone call with Chinese Foreign Minister Qin Gang on March 16 that he and Qin discussed the "importance of the principle of territorial integrity" during the call and said, "I emphasized President Zelensky's Ukraine has said any plan to end the Russo-Ukrainian war must involve the withdrawal of Russian troops to Ukraine's 1991 borders.